Summary of financial and foreign exchange markets – December 15, 2025

Markets traded on the defensive on Monday as disappointing economic data from China and renewed uncertainty over central bank policy weighed on risk appetite, while the Japanese yen strengthened ahead of this week’s BoJ decision.

Gold was the session’s top performer, gaining ground amid broader market caution, while bitcoin extended its recent slide into bear market territory and oil prices fell on concerns about oversupply.

Check out the forex news and economic updates you may have missed during the last trading session!

Forex News Headlines and Data:

• New Zealand Services Index for November 2025: 46.9 (forecast 49.3; previous 48.7)
• RBNZ Governor Anna Breman is waiting for the official exchange rate will remain unchanged for some time
• Japan’s Tankan Major Producers Index December 31, 2025: 15.0 (15.0 forecast; 14.0 previous)
• China Economic Updates for November 2025:
  • Unemployment rate in China for November 2025: 5.1% (5.2% forecast; 5.1% previously)
  • Retail sales in China to November 2025: 1.3% y/y (forecast 3.3% y/y; 2.9% y/y previous)
  • China’s November 2025 industrial production: 4.8% y/y (forecast 5.4% y/y; 4.9% y/y previous)
  • China House Price Index for November 2025: -2.4% y/y (forecast -1.9% y/y; -2.2% y/y previous)
• Germany Wholesale prices for November 2025: 0.3% m/m (forecast 0.2% m/m; previous 0.3% m/m); 1.5% y/y (forecast 1.3% y/y; 1.1% y/y previous)
• Swiss manufacturer and import prices for November 2025: -0.5% m/m (-0.4% m/m forecast; -0.3% m/m previous); -1.6% y/y (forecast -1.5% y/y; -1.7% y/y previous)
• The growth rate of the consumer price index in Canada for November 2025: 0.1% m/m (forecast 0.1% m/m; previous 0.2% m/m); 2.2% y/y (forecast 2.3% y/y; 2.2% y/y previous)
• Manufacturing sales in Canada Final result for October 2025: -1.0% m/m (forecast -1.1% m/m; 3.3% m/m previous)
• Index of Production of the Empire State of New York for December 2025: -3.9 (11.0 forecast; 18.7 previous)
• Fed Governor Miron argued that the policy was unduly restrictivepointing to inflation close to target
• New York Fed President Williams says monetary policy is well positioned for 2026 after last week’s rate cut
• Fed spokesman Collins said the December rate cut was a “close call.” as it remains concerned about high inflation
• on monday Ukraine offers to abandon the application for joining NATO for security guarantees
• December 2025 NAHB US Housing Market Index: 39.0 (forecast 37.0; previous reading 38.0)
• Oil falls to lowest level in nearly two months on potential Ukraine deal and weak China data

Broad Market Price Action:

Monday’s session reflected growing concerns about the global growth outlook and central bank policy as markets struggled to find direction ahead of critical jobs and inflation data releases this week.

gold was the day’s clear winner, up about 0.4% as safe-haven demand returned amid broader market uncertainty. The precious metal benefited from renewed concern over Chinese economic dynamics and expectations of further Federal Reserve easingdespite disagreements among policymakers about the appropriate pace of rate cuts.

Bitcoin faced strong selling pressure, falling 2.5% to top $86,000 for the first time in two weeks. The largest cryptocurrency is down about 30% from its record high of $126,000 reached in early October. The decline highlighted poor liquidity and fading risk appetite, with bitcoin failing to rally along with other risk assets despite the Fed’s recent rate cut. Strategy Inc. continued its accumulation strategy, buying nearly $1 billion in bitcoin for the second week in a row.

WTI crude oil fell to its lowest level in nearly two months, down 2.3% to close around $57 a barrel. The sell-off reflects rising concerns about oversupply, with renewal of optimism around potential peace talks in Ukraine, increased prospects for the return of additional Russian barrels to the market. Weak Chinese economic data likely fueled demand-side concerns.

US stocks fluctuated throughout the session, with the S&P 500 hovering around 6,820 in choppy trading. A renewed tech selloff weighed on the index, with Broadcom heading for its worst three-day drop since 2020 and Oracle extending its multi-session slide to about 17%. The cryptocurrency rout and worries about labor market data have dampened risk appetite.

The The 10-year Treasury yield was largely unchanged at 4.18% as investors positioned themselves ahead of Tuesday’s delayed jobs report. Bond markets are reflecting the Fed’s shift toward greater focus on labor market risks, with two-year bond yields slightly lower amid expectations of two rate cuts in 2026.

Currency Market Behavior: The US Dollar vs. Major Currencies

Green money Asian session saw choppy, sideways trading with a possibly bearish slant as markets digested the weekend’s events and pre-empted strong economic data from China. The releases were broadly disappointing, with retail sales rising just 1.3% year-on-year versus expectations of 3.3%, the weakest pace since the end of the zero-control policy to combat COVID-19. Industrial production and fixed investment also missed forecasts, raising concerns about weak domestic demand despite a record positive trade balance.

During the exchange rate of the dollar, the bearish pressure increased London Session, and with direct catalysts to point to, it’s possible that traders reduced exposure ahead of this week’s critical US jobs and inflation reports, which were delayed by the federal government shutdown. The Japanese yen was a notable early mover, possibly helped by an improvement in BOJ Tankan data and constructive comments from the central bank that bolstered expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike at this week’s December 18-19 meeting. Markets currently estimate a roughly 94% chance of BOJ tightening, and swaps markets estimate 67 basis points of additional hikes by the end of 2026.

During Art US sessionThe dollar found support and rebounded against most major currencies. The recovery reflected an adjustment in positioning ahead of Tuesday’s jobs report, which will include wage estimates for both October and November after a delay in the shutdown. The US dollar index rose along with bond yields, while stocks, gold, oil and bitcoin fell, suggesting some defensive repositioning.

The Federal Reserve’s commentary underscored ongoing policy disagreements. Gov. Stephen Miron reiterated his view that the current position is unduly restrictivearguing that “core” inflation is close to the 2% target after adjusting for housing and other components. He advocated for faster easing to reach neutrality, warning that keeping rates too high would risk job losses. On the contrary, New York Fed President John Williams stressed that policy is “well-calculated” for 2026 after a recent cut of 25 basis points, while Boston Fed President Susan Collins called the December decision a “close call” due to concerns about elevated inflation.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman has dismissed investors’ expectations of a rate hike in 2026saying it expects the official cash rate to remain unchanged at 2.25% for some time. The kiwi dollar fell sharply on her comments during the Asian session, which traders saw as a warning of overly aggressive market pricing.

At the close on Monday, the dollar was mixed against major currency pairs, reflecting uncertainty over this week’s data releases and their implications for Federal Reserve policy.

Future potential catalysts of the economic calendar

• New Zealand Food Price Index for November 2025 at 21:45 GMT
• Australia S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash for December 2025 at 22:00 GMT
• Change in Westpac Consumer Confidence in Australia for December 2025 at 23:30 GMT
• Japan S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash for December 2025 at 00:30 GMT
• UK Employment Update for October 2025 at 7:00 GMT
• Change in UK applicant numbers for November 2025 at 07:00 GMT
• German Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash for December 2025 at 08:30 GMT
• Eurozone Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash for December 2025 at 9:00 GMT
• UK PMI Flash Manufacturing and Services for December 2025 at 9:30 GMT
• German economic sentiment index ZEW for December 2025 at 10:00 GMT
• New Zealand World Dairy Price Index for 16 December 2025
• Building and construction permits in the US for September and October 2025
• Weekly US employment changes ADP on November 29, 2025 at 1:15 PM GMT
• US employment update for October 2025 at 1:30 PM GMT
• US Retail Sales for October 2025 at 13:30 GMT

Tuesday’s calendar contains an unusually large amount of data as authorities catch up after the government shutdown. The The US employment report will be particularly closely watchedproviding wage estimates for both October and November following the extended federal shutdown.

Global Flash PMI Update offers a new perspective on the dynamics of manufacturing and services in major economies. UK employment and US retail sales data the numbers will cap off an intense session that could have a significant impact on the near-term expectations of the Federal Reserve and broader market sentiment for the rest of the year.

Don’t forget, forex friends, and don’t forget to check out our forex correlation calculator if you’re planning to take a risk!