Summary of financial and foreign exchange markets – December 4, 2025

Markets were treading water on Thursday as traders cautiously positioned themselves ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve decision, with oil leading gains and bitcoin continuing its pullback from recent highs.

Mixed economic signals – unexpectedly strong US jobless claims data alongside weak activity readings from Canada – kept major asset classes in a range for most of the session, although oil managed to rally on geopolitical developments.

Check out the forex news and economic updates you may have missed during the last trading session!

Forex News Headlines and Data:

• Australia’s trade balance for October 2025: 4.39 billion (forecast 4.2 billion; previous 3.94 billion)
  • Australian exports in October 2025: 3.4% m/m (7.9% m/m previously)
  • Australian imports in October 2025: 2.0% m/m (1.1% m/m previously)
• Australian household spending for October 2025: 5.6% y/m (forecast 5.0% y/m; 5.1% y/m pre);Â 1.3% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; 0.2% m/m pre)
• Unemployment rate in Switzerland for November 2025: 2.9% (2.9% forecast; 2.9% previously)
• Swiss procure.ch Manufacturing PMI for November 2025: 49.7 (forecast 48.5; previous 48.2)
• PMI HCOB Construction Eurozone for November 2025: 45.4 (forecast 45.1; previous 44.0)
• UK new car sales in November 2025: -1.6% y/y (forecast 1.0% y/y; 0.5% y/y previously)
• UK S&P Global Construction PMI for November 2025: 39.4 (forecast 45.0; previous 44.1)
• Eurozone retail sales for October 2025: 1.5% y/y (forecast 1.1% y/y; 1.0% y/y previous); 0.0% m/m (forecast 0.3% m/m; -0.1% m/m previous)
• Job cuts at Challenger in the US for November 2025: 71.32 thousand (98.0 thousand forecast; 153.07 thousand previous)
• US Initial Jobless Claims for November 29, 2025: 191.0K (220.0K Forecast; 216.0K Previous)
• Canada Ivey PMI for November 2025: 48.4 (52.2 forecast; 52.4 previous)
• This was stated on Thursday by the chief economist of the ECB, Philip Lane that recent eurozone inflation has picked up a bit, but risks are now more two-sided; argued that the ECB should remain data-driven and avoid reacting to small or apparently transitory deviations from the 2% target.

Broad Market Price Action:

Thursday’s session saw relatively muted price action across most major asset classes with low volatility dominating as traders likely took a defensive stance ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve policy decision and Friday’s delayed US inflation data.

S&P 500 closed marginally higher at 6,855.80, up just 0.04% on the day. U.S. stock futures traded flat during the Asian session before maintaining their sideways drift after hours in London. The index settled short after stronger-than-expected jobless claims data in early US trade, but the move lacked conviction as traders appeared reluctant to chase the market higher as the Fed looms. Meta Platforms jumped 4% on reports that executives are considering budget cuts for the metaverse group, while small caps outperformed with gains of about 1%, possibly on expectations of further Fed accommodation to support the economically sensitive segment.

gold rose 0.13% to $4,208.60 an ounce after a relatively quiet session. The precious metal traded bearishly sideways for several hours in Asia and London before finding modest support in U.S. trade, likely correlated with the dollar’s initial slide on jobless claims. Despite the muted price movement, gold remained well-supported near its elevated levels as traders remained defensive amid lingering expectations of a Fed rate cut and geopolitical tensions.

WTI crude oil was the standout performer of the session, rising 1.38% to close around $59.50. Oil traded modestly higher in Asian hours, retreating in the morning London session before accelerating gains in US hours. A rally appeared driven by geopolitical developments, with comments from Russian President Putin highlighting continued energy cooperation with India and his rejection of some U.S.-backed Ukraine peace proposals seemingly offsetting concerns about persistent oversupply. President Trump’s reiteration that the US would strike at alleged drug cartels in Venezuela “very soon” could have provided further support as military intervention could potentially disrupt Venezuelan oil production and exports.

Bitcoin continued its recent retreat, down 1.50% to trade around $92,309.80. The cryptocurrency faced selling pressure throughout the session, sliding lower in Asian hours and continuing lower during London and US trade. There have been no direct specific catalysts for Bitcoin, so it’s possible we’re seeing a bit of profit-taking after a sharp bounce from Monday’s bottom around $84,000 to $94,000 earlier in the Asian session.

The The 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.96% to 4.110%, up about 4 basis points on the day. Yields rose steadily throughout the day with a spike in volatility after sharp US jobless claims data temporarily dampened expectations for aggressive Fed easing.

Currency Market Behavior: The US Dollar vs. Major Currencies

Overlay on TradingView Forex USD vs Major Companies Chart

The US dollar was mixed on Thursday, trading flat on both sides throughout the session before finishing marginally positive against most major currencies after a quick back-and-forth, shaped mainly by US labor market data.

During the Asian session, the greenback traded positively against major currencies, which likely added to Wednesday’s late-session resilience. Markets were relatively quiet with traders remaining cautious ahead of key data later in the global day.

In the London session, the dollar traded mixed but perhaps net lower against the major currencies. The weakness correlated with disappointing European economic data, with the UK construction PMI falling to 39.4 against an expected 45.0, and eurozone retail sales missing from the monthly reading, which paradoxically put pressure on the dollar rather than supporting it. The ill-advised move suggested that traders were either positioning for the upcoming US jobless claims release or that concerns about broader weakness in the global economy dominated currency flows.

The US session saw significant volatility in the dollar, centered on the initial jobless claims report at 8:30 AM ET. The data came in at 191,000 versus 220,000 expected…”the lowest figure in the last three years“Initially, the dollar dropped sharply, which looked like a ‘sell the fact’ reaction, or perhaps algorithmic trading gone wrong. However, the dollar quickly reversed course and recovered throughout the rest of the session as markets digested the implications of strong labor market data for Fed policy.

The dollar’s recovery also correlated with a disappointing Canada Ivey PMI (48.4 vs. 52.2 expected), which showed that business activity in Canada is slowing. An argument can be made that part of the capital flowed from the luni to the hryvnia around this time. At Thursday’s close, the dollar was mixed against the major currencies, but it may have been positive, finishing as one of the best performing major currencies. currencies together with oil.

Future potential catalysts of the economic calendar

• Japan Reuters Tankan Index for December 2025 at 23:00 GMT
• Japan Household Spending October 2025 at 23:30 GMT
• Japan Index of Leading Economic Indicators for October 2025 at 5:00 AM GMT
• Factory orders from Germany for October 2025 at 7:00 GMT
• Halifax UK House Price Index November 2025 07:00 GMT
• Growth rates of GDP in the Eurozone and changes in employment for September 2025 at 10:00 GMT
• UK BBA Mortgage Rate November 2025 10:00 GMT
• Canada Employment Update for November 2025 at 13:30 GMT
• US factory orders for October 2025
• University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for December 2025 at 15:00 GMT
• The main US PCE price index for September 2025 at 15:00 GMT
• US Personal Income and Spending for September 2025 at 15:00 GMT
• Speech of the ECB in the eurozone at 15:10 GMT
• US Consumer Credit Change for October 2025 at 20:00 GMT

Friday’s calendar looks relatively quiet during Asian and London hours before delivering a concentrated burst of significant US data in the afternoon session. The The core PCE price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation — will be the key informationhowever, economists forecast monthly growth of 0.2% for the third time in a row, which would keep the year-on-year rate slightly below 3%. this reading although dated September due to delays with the government shutdowncould still affect market expectations for next week’s Fed decision, especially if it shows unexpected persistence in inflationary pressures.

The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will provide fresh insight into household confidence at the end of the year Canadian employment data could spark volatility in June after Thursday’s disappointing Ivy PMI reading. Any significant deviation from the consensus on these reports could trigger an adjustment in positioning ahead of the weekend, although markets may remain cautious given the Fed’s shutdown period and next Wednesday’s policy decision looming.

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