Aud Pops on RBA Hold but distracted after a cautious tone

Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) contained cash rates of 3.60% In September, in a widely anticipated decision, which reflected the cautious approach of the Central Bank amid ambiguous economic signals.

The unanimous voting that happened, as the latest data offered by inflation may be more sticky than expected.

RBA impressed the cautious tone by noting that “Recent data, while partial and changing, suggest that inflation in the September quarter may be higher than expected.â €

Council emphasized that it would remain depending on the data, stating that it is “By the way, to remain careful, updating your view of the outlook as the data develops.â €

Key trips:

• RBA was carried out at 3.60% After three cuts in 2025 (February, my August)
• A The decision was unanimous Among the members of the Board
• August Monthly IPC jumped up to 3.0% Y/Y with 2.8%, the highest since July 2024.
• Q3 Inflation â € œ may be higher than expected
• Private consumption Collection when real income grows
• Housing market strengthening from the effects of reducing speed
• Growing credits Acceleration up to 7.2% annually
• Unemployment is steadily by 4.2% in August

Reference to the official statement about the monetary policy of RBA in September 2025.

The Central Bank warned that “indications that inflation may be persistent in some areasâ € is justified. Governor Bulak emphasized the need to see the complete consequences of 75 basic points of weakening this year before moving again.

At his press conference, Bulak emphasized that “We are in a very difficult position on the real estate marketâ € but emphasized RBA should focus on its inflation mandate. She warned that higher prices – it affect everyone, and again reduces inflation, does not mean deflation – â € â € œWe reduce the rate at which the prices are increasing.â €

Bulak refused to provide the guide forward by saying: â € œI’m not going to predict what interest rate will be in the next three -six months.â €

The markets were widely expected. Now NAB does not see the cuts until May 2026, while WestPac supports its November forecast.

Reference to Press Conference RBA in September 2025

Market reaction:

Australian dollar vs major currencies: 5 minutes

Australian dollar that leaned toward the bulls widely and sharply jumped into the rba solution As the traders scale, mitigating expectations.

Immediate income is likely to reflect reduced chances of reducing speed after RBA has highlighted inflation risks and improving domestic demand. As a result of the Central Bank’s alarm, he wants to see the full report on the Q3 IPC before moving again, the markets pushed the expectations for the next incision from September to November or later.

Then the currency was distracted during the Bullock press conference when the RBA chief repeated the bank approach.

Audâ € ™ s DIP after the Bullock press is likely to reflect frustration What she had reduced the risk of inflation, saying that “it does not run away” and calling the forecast, “or not repeling the speed of reducing speed.

Its refusal to provide recommendations forward, pointing to global uncertainty and the need for additional data, how to leave the door open for further relaxation when the conditions are mitated, which gave the currency.

The streams at the end of the quarter may also played a role, especially after the wide income of Aussie.

The currency remains green, with the biggest income against USD, CAD and CHF.