Summary of financial and foreign exchange markets – November 24, 2025

Markets opened the holiday-shortened week on a cautiously upbeat note, with technology stocks leading a recovery in equities as Federal Reserve officials signaled they were ready to cut rates further, although trading remained light ahead of Thanksgiving.

Check out the forex news and economic updates you may have missed during the last trading session!

Forex News Headlines and Data:

• Over the weekend: US pressure renewed on Ukraine to make concessions to Russia as Washington pushes for revised peace framework
• Japanese markets were closed for the holiday, reducing liquidity in the Asian session
• Wages in Swiss non-agricultural farms as of September 30, 2025: 5.53 million (forecast 5.54 million; previous 5.53 million)
• Germany’s business climate Ifo for November 2025: 88.1 (forecast 88.0; previous 88.4)
• Canadian manufacturing sales in previous October 2025: -1.1% m/m (forecast -1.5% m/m; 3.3% m/m previously)
• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index November 2025: -10.4 (forecast -1.0; previous -5.0)
• Due to concerns about the labor market, Federal Reserve Governor Waller said Monday he favors a December interest rate cut

Broad Market Price Action:

Monday’s session reflected cautious optimism as markets digested dovish comments from multiple Federal Reserve officials over the weekend and assessed ongoing geopolitical developments.

gold rose 1.65% to trade around $4,132 an ounce, building on recent gains as investors weighed expectations of a Fed rate cut against geopolitical uncertainty. The precious metal traded in subdued ranges during the Asian session with Japanese markets closed, then found support during European hours, correlating with the release of weaker-than-expected German business sentiment data. Gold continued to gain in the afternoon in the US as Treasury yields fell and the dollar traded mixed.

WTI crude oil rose 1.96% to close around $58.90, recovering from earlier pressure despite ongoing discussions about a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Oil prices remain in a long-term downtrend on expectations that the settlement could eventually lift sanctions and free up previously restricted Russian supplies. However, new US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil that took effect on Friday left nearly 48 million barrels of Russian oil at sea, creating a dynamic that could potentially support prices in the short term if the situation persists.

Stock markets found solid footing after last week’s volatility, with the S&P 500 posting its best day in six weeks, up 1.5% to 6,707.Tech stocks led the rally, with the Nasdaq 100 up more than 2%, its biggest gain since May. The rebound came after supportive comments Fed officials Williams, Waller and Daley signal willingness to cut rates in December to protect labor market. Markets entered the week oversold following recent concerns about AI valuations and Fed policy uncertainty.

Treasury yields fell across the curve, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.03% from 4.062% at Friday’s close. The decline likely reflects rising market expectations for a rate cut in December, with money markets now pricing in a roughly 70% chance of a rate cut next month. The yield on the 2-year note rose from 3.513% to about 3.526%.

Bitcoin surged higher on the open, retreated and then reversed to close 4.6% higher around $89,035, showing renewed resilience amid the current massive sell-off since reaching the 2025 highs above the $126,000 price level. There is no major news related to Bitcoin in the session, so it may have been a brief profit-taking or a rejection of buyers from oversold levels.

Currency Market Behavior: US Dollar vs. Major Currencies:

Overlay on TradingView Forex USD vs Major Companies Chart

The U.S. dollar traded in narrow ranges on Monday, closing mixed against major currencies in a session marked by low liquidity due to the closure of Japanese markets and cautious positioning of traders ahead of a data-heavy Tuesday and the Thanksgiving holiday later this week.

The dollar rose slightly during the Asian session before retreating amid subdued trading conditions. When Japanese markets closed for the holiday, liquidity was noticeably reduced. Major currency pairs traded in narrow ranges as traders lacked fresh catalysts, and the session may have taken on a bearish slant for the greenback heading into the London open.

The London session saw mixed, mixed trading as European data crossed the wire. Germany’s Ifo business climate index fell to 88.1 in November from 88.4 earlier, coming in slightly below the forecast of 88.5. The Ifo’s current conditions component beat expectations at 85.6 against a forecast of 85.1, but the expectations component disappointed at 90.6 against an expected 91.1. Weak German sentiment data initially weighed on the euro, but the dollar’s reaction remained muted as traders maintained a slightly bearish bias against most major currencies during the morning hours.

In the US session, the dollar gained strength after the open as the DXY edged higher as stocks rallied and expectations of a rate cut eased as risk appetite rose in the market. However, the dollar retreated before the London close as profit-taking emerged. The Dallas Fed manufacturing index for November came in at -10.4, much weaker than the forecast of -1.0, and down from -5.0 earlier, suggesting continued contraction in the sector. Despite this soft data, the dollar maintained its resistance against most pairs.

At the close on Monday, the dollar traded mixed, with the DXY index virtually flat at 100.189. The greenback showed strength against the yen and some commodity currencies, but fell against the Australian dollar, the pound and the euro.

Future potential catalysts of the economic calendar

• Final German GDP growth rates for September 30, 2025 at 07:00 GMT
• UK CBI Distributive Trades for November 2025 at 11:00 GMT
• Weekly US employment changes ADP for November 8, 2025 at 1:15 PM GMT
• Canada Wholesale Item October 2025 1:30 PM GMT
• US retail sales for September 2025 at 1:30 PM GMT
• US PPI for September 2025 at 1:30 PM GMT
• US House Price Index for September 2025 at 14:00 GMT
• US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices for September 2025 at 14:00 GMT
• US Business and Retail Inventories for August 2025 at 15:00 GMT
• CB US Consumer Confidence for November 2025 at 15:00 GMT
• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for November 2025 at 15:00 GMT
• US Pending Home Sales for October 2025 at 15:00 GMT
• Dallas Fed Index for November 2025 at 15:30 GMT
• US money supply in October 2025 at 18:00 GMT
• Change in US API crude oil inventories for November 21, 2025 at 21:30 GMT

Tuesday brings a critical stream of delayed US economic data after the government shutdown, with retail sales and the producer price index for September the main releases. These retrospective figures will provide insight into economic conditions going back more than two months, although traders will scrutinize them for clues about underlying trends. The weekly ADP jobs data will also draw attention as markets assess labor market conditions ahead of the Fed’s December meeting. Any significant deviations from expectations can cause volatility across asset classes as traders adjust for the possibility of lower rates.

Outside of the data calendar, markets will remain sensitive to any developments on the geopolitical front, particularly in relation to Ukraine-Russia peace talks and possible shifts in US trade policy towards China. Reports that the Trump administration is considering selling Nvidia’s H200 chips to China have already weighed on semiconductor stocks and could signal broader changes in the trade relationship. Oil markets will continue to monitor both the prospects of a peace agreement and the consequences of new sanctions that have cut off supplies of Russian oil.

Don’t forget, forex friends, and don’t forget to check out our forex correlation calculator if you’re planning to take a risk!