Summary of financial and foreign exchange markets – December 2, 2025

Markets turned in a cautiously upbeat session on Tuesday, with US stocks up modestly, while Bitcoin rebounded sharply from Monday’s slide. The dollar traded mixed as traders analyzed the Bank of England’s policy cues and awaited key US employment data on Wednesday.

Check out the forex news and economic updates you may have missed during the last trading session!

Forex News Headlines and Data:

• New Zealand Terms of Trade 30 September 2025: -2.1% qoq (forecast 3.5% qoq; 4.1% qoq previous)
• Building permits in Australia Forecast for October 2025: -6.4% m/m (forecast -2.0% m/m; 12.0% m/m previous)
• Australian current account at 30 September 2025: -16.6 billion (forecast -10.2 billion; previous -13.7 billion) – largest deficit since 2016
• Japan’s consumer confidence for November 2025: 37.5 (36.1 forecast; 35.8 previous)
• Nationwide house prices in the UK for November 2025: 0.3% m/m (forecast 0.2% m/m; 0.3% m/m previous)
• Inflation rate in the euro zone to November 2025: 2.2% y/y (forecast 2.1% y/y; 2.1% y/y previous)
  • Eurozone core inflation forecast for November 2025: 2.4% y/y (forecast 2.3% y/y; 2.4% y/y previously)
• Bank of England Financial Stability Report noted increased risks in 2025, but sees the UK banking system as resilient, having slightly eased structural capital requirements to support lending
• Putin met in the Kremlin with US ambassadors Vitkov and Kushner on the peace proposals of Ukraine

Broad Market Price Action:

Tuesday’s session saw a marked divergence between asset classes, with cryptocurrency markets recovering sharply, while traditional risk assets consolidated and commodities extended their retreat.

The S&P 500 managed to squeeze out its sixth gain in seven sessions, rising modestly to around 6,830, although that gain masked underlying weakness as most constituent stocks actually declined. The index traded in a relatively narrow range during the day, with early session losses in Asia giving way to a modest recovery in London hours. Stocks fell sharply in the afternoon after the US Open, suggesting traders remained cautious ahead of Wednesday’s ADP jobs data and broader concerns about the breadth of the market. Apple led the gains, while Tesla fell after Michael Berry called the stock “ridiculously overvalued.”

Bitcoin provided the most dramatic price action of the day, returning above $90,000 after Monday’s strong selloff that wiped out nearly $1 billion in leveraged positions. The cryptocurrency initially struggled during Asian trade, holding around $86,000-$87,000 before catching a strong bid in London hours. Gains accelerated during the afternoon in the US, with bitcoin up 6.7% to $92,228. The rebound correlated with positive industry headlines, including SEC Chairman Paul Atkins comments on plans for an “innovation exemption” for digital asset companies and Vanguard’s decision to allow cryptocurrency ETFs on its platform. However, some indicators suggest that the recovery may be short-lived, with funding rates remaining negative and CoinMarketCap’s fear and greed index remaining at the “extreme fear” level.

gold extended the pullback from Monday’s highs, falling about 0.9% to trade around $4,192 an ounce. The precious metal came under pressure during Asian trade and continued to decline during the London and US sessions, likely reflecting profit-taking after recent record runs and perhaps in response to a slight strengthening of the dollar during London hours.

WTI crude oil posted its worst performance of the session, falling 1.55% to around $58.20. The energy complex faced pressure throughout all three trading sessions, with no direct oil-related news to point to as a catalyst. The decline may reflect broader concerns about demand given mixed global economic data, although geopolitical tensions remain high as Putin threatens strikes on Ukrainian support ships amid attacks on Russia’s tanker fleet.

The The 10-year Treasury yield traded mostly sideways around 4.09-4.11%, showing little net change for the day despite significant intraday movement. The yield was initially lower in Asian hours before recovering in London trading before settling in a narrow range during US hours. The stability came despite growing speculation about the potential nomination of a more dovish Fed chairman, suggesting traders were waiting for clearer signals from Wednesday’s jobs data.

Currency Market Behavior: US Dollar vs. Major Currencies:

Overlay on TradingView Forex USD vs Major Companies Chart

The U.S. dollar turned in a choppy, largely non-directional performance on Tuesday, showing mixed results against major currencies as competing narratives kept traders reluctant to place strong bets on the direction ahead of Wednesday’s critical U.S. jobs data.

During the Asian session, the greenback traded with a slight bullish bias but lacked conviction, trading in narrow ranges against most major currencies. The session featured relatively light economic data, with disappointing numbers from Australia and New Zealand having limited impact on the broader dollar.

The dollar’s most decisive move came at the open in London, when the US dollar rose significantly against major currencies. This strength correlates with the release of the Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report and comments from Bank of England Governor Bailey, although there were no direct catalysts for the growth of the dollar from the US data. The dollar’s gains appeared to be outweighed by slightly hotter-than-expected Eurozone CPI data (2.2% vs. 2.1% expected), suggesting traders were positioning based on relative expectations for central bank policy rather than reacting mechanically to inflation prints.

However, the strengthening of the dollar in London turned out to be short-lived. On the eve of the opening of the American session, the greenback began to move away from the highs, perhaps as traders took profits or adjusted positions ahead of Wednesday’s ADP report and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data.

After US markets opened, the dollar traded in a mixed, volatile pattern with a net bearish bias during the afternoon. Before closing the session, the dollar showed mixed but clear bearish indicators in relation to the major currencies.

Broad dollar weakness in US hours, despite the absence of major negative catalysts specific to the US, suggests that traders can expect potential surprises in future employment data and/or take note of reports that economic adviser Kevin Hassett– seen as a rate cut supporter – could be appointed as the next Fed chair.

The overall price action also highlighted the market’s current lack of conviction about the dollar’s short-term direction, with positioning likely to remain volatile ahead of Wednesday’s ADP employment data and particularly Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report provide more accurate signals about the Fed’s policy trajectory.

Future potential catalysts of the economic calendar

• Australia S&P Global Services PMI Final for November 2025 at 22:00 GMT
• AIG Australian Manufacturing Index November 2025 22:00 GMT
• Australia’s GDP growth rate on September 30, 2025 at 00:30 GMT
• Final S&P Global Services PMI for November 2025 at 00:30 GMT
• China RatingDog Services PMI for November 2025 at 1:45am GMT
• Inflation rate in Switzerland for November 2025 at 7:30 GMT
• Eurozone HCOB Services PMI Result for November 2025 at 09:00 GMT
• Final S&P Global Services PMI for November 2025 at 09:30 GMT
• Euro area producer price index growth rate for October 2025 at 10:00 GMT
• Speech of the ECB in the eurozone at 10:30 GMT
• US 30 Year MBA Mortgage Rate & Applications Nov 28, 2025 12:00 GMT
• ADP US National Employment Report for November 2025 at 13:15 GMT
• Canadian Labor Productivity for September 30, 2025 at 1:30 PM GMT
• ECB President Lagarde’s speech in the euro zone at 1:30 PM GMT
• US Import and Export Prices for September 2025 at 13:30 GMT
• US Manufacturing and Industrial Production for September 2025 at 14:15 GMT
• Canada S&P Global Services PMI for November 2025 at 14:30 GMT
• ISM Services PMI for November 2025 at 15:00 GMT
• EIA Crude Oil Inventories Change for November 28, 2025 at 15:30 GMT

Wednesday looks to be a potentially volatile session with multiple US top-level data releases that could significantly impact Fed policy expectations ahead of next week’s FOMC decision. The ADP National Employment Report at 13:15 GMT will provide the first significant information on labor market conditions in November, setting the tone for Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Markets are currently pricing in an 89.2% chance of a 25 basis point Fed cut on December 10, but any significant deviation from the consensus in the employment data could change those odds significantly.

US ISM Services PMI at 3:00 PM GMT represents another important data point given the dominance of services in the US economy. After recent industrial weakness, strong services data could temper expectations of a rate cut and support the dollar, while disappointing numbers could heighten concerns about a broader economic slowdown.

In addition to scheduled data, geopolitical developments require close attention after Putin and Vitkov met on Tuesday about Ukraine’s peace proposals. Any unexpected announcements on this front could trigger risk or risk flows depending on the expected progress.

In addition, speeches of ECB officials Leina and Lagarde may provide new insight into the trajectory of European monetary policy amid slightly elevated inflation rates, which may impact the positioning of the euro.

Don’t forget, forex friends, and don’t forget to check out our forex correlation calculator if you’re planning to take a risk!