The first full trading week of February brought a volatile mix of central bank surprises, worsening labor market data and sharp risk sentiment that upended traditional currency correlations. The Reserve Bank of Australia shocked markets with its first rate hike in more than two years, pushing the Aussie to one-week highs, while the Japanese yen was the worst performer despite normally benefiting from market stress. The US dollar defied weak employment figures, including a dismal ADP report and a sharp JOLTS open, to finish positive against most majors as safe-haven flows dominated. Central banks took center stage midweek, with an unexpectedly wide gap in the Bank of England vote and a sharp ECB hold changing rate expectations. Meanwhile, tech stocks withstood severe selling pressure on fears of an artificial intelligence disruption, precious metals tumbled and cryptocurrencies suffered from violent deleveraging. The week highlighted how policy divergence and changing risk appetites can override traditional fundamentals in currency markets.
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